A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
